FEATURE PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLE

• CONSTRUCTION COST OVERRUN RISK ANALYSIS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TECHNIQUE: CASE OF A SIX-STOREY OFFICE BUILDING IN THAILAND

  Damrongsak Rinchumphu (Center of Excellence for Natural Disaster Management (CENDIM), Chiang Mai University, THAILAND and Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, THAILAND),
  Chonticha Karnjanamukdar, Kasina Uboncharoen (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chiang Mai University, THAILAND),
  Wacharapong Prasarnklieo (Department of Architecture and Planning, Faculty of Architecture, King Mongkut's Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, THAILAND).
  

  Disciplinary: Civil Engineering (Construction Project Management).

  ➤ FullText

  DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.222

  Keywords: Construction cost risk analysis; BOQ analysis; Risk of cost variation; Material price variation; Construction project cost overruns; Office building construction; Price index distribution pattern; Construction budget management.

  Abstract
  This study aimed to analyze construction cost overrun risks related to design guidelines to prevent possible risks. Construction cost overrun risk in six-storey office building construction projects was emphasized. This research mainly aimed to analyze the construction budget risks from the variance in material costs and wages using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique. This research considered four categories of variables, consisting of the cement price index, steel price index, other material price index (except cement and steel) and consumer price index of Thailand, over 60 months from November 2014 until October 2019, with reference to the Thai Ministry of Commerce. The results showed that the construction cost overruns of the six-storey office building construction with a budget of 248 million Baht was equivalent to 4%, which meant that the risk was equal to 9.9 million Baht. The overall result from this research could assist developers as a reference for project budget management to manage the projects' financial risk, and developers or designers could cite the data for material proportion design to minimize the project construction cost risk.
  

  Paper ID: 11A11R

  Cite this article:

  Rinchumphu, D., Karnjanamukdar, C., Uboncharoen, K., Prasarnklieo, W. (2020). CONSTRUCTION COST OVERRUN RISK ANALYSIS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TECHNIQUE: CASE OF A SIX-STOREY OFFICE BUILDING IN THAILAND. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 11(11), 11A11R, 1-11.