FEATURE PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLE

• STOCHASTIC SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KLONG YAI RIVER BASIN, THAILAND

  Kwanchanok Oonta-on, Uruya Weesakul (Department of Civil Engineering, Thammasat School of Engineering, Thammasat University, THAILAND),
  Nkrintra Singhrattna (Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, Ministry of Interior, THAILAND).
  

  Disciplinary: Water Resources Engineering and Management, Environmental Climate Change, Sustainability.

  ➤ FullText

  DOI: 10.14456/ITJEMAST.2020.223

  Keywords: Stochastic hydrologic model; Climate change; Rainfall forecast model; Atmospheric variables; K-nearest neighbor.

  Abstract
  During the past decades, Thailand has faced flood and drought problems caused by the effects of global climate change which directly affected rainfall-runoff and water allocation for all demands. This research aims to study the relationships between rainfall in the study area and large-scale atmospheric variables at the different levels from surface level to 10-mb level at lead time 4-15 months. The predictors were identified to develop a 3-month rainfall forecast model to support water resources management. The model evaluations using the leave-one-out technique were evaluated by the goodness-of-fit of statistics and probability density function (PDF) of observed rainfall. The results revealed that the observed data could be preserved to the estimated data for the goodness-of-fit technique and the PDF technique, observed and predicted rainfall were classified into five categories (namely: extremely dry, dry, normal, wet and extremely wet respectively), represented the maximum efficiency in pre-monsoon season (May-June-July) and minimum model efficiency in monsoon season (August-September-October) approximately 42.5% and 31.7% respectively.
  

  Paper ID: 11A11S

  Cite this article:

  Oonta-on, K., Weesakul, U., Singhrattna, N. (2020). STOCHASTIC SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN KLONG YAI RIVER BASIN, THAILAND. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management, & Applied Sciences & Technologies, 11(11), 11A11S, 1-14.